IndiaScope: What Can We Expect from Trump’s Second Term?
The outcome that half the nation dreaded and the other half eagerly awaited has come to pass.
While much of the opposition to Donald J. Trump on the issues of immigration, deportation, values, rhetoric, etc. remained the same in the run-up to the 2024 election, there were also some distinct changes. Industry giants and past Democratic supporters such as Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos signaled early on their acceptance of a possible second Trump presidency. Of course, we know about the morphing of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy into MAGA acolytes. Further, the coalition of minority, diaspora, and immigrant communities that had contributed to Trump’s loss in 2020 changed course in 2024. Hispanic Americans increased their support for the GOP by 5%, including by a majority of males. The African American vote for the GOP was up by 8%, led primarily by black males. Jewish Americans still preferred Democrats, but by smaller margins. Asian Americans moved to the GOP by 3%. A 2024 Carnegie Endowment survey, although released prior to the election, revealed that Democratic support from Indian Americans fell from 56% to 47%. But this ran counter to other surveys that showed Indian American support for Harris at around 60%.
For many in the Indian diaspora, Trump’s hardline stance on immigration did not seem to deter their voting for him. In the end, perhaps it was “the economy, stupid” that served as a motivation above all. Surveys across all communities certainly suggest that this factor was the greatest determinant in GOP votes. The other unique point of interest in the race—Kamala Harris’s part-Indian heritage vs. Usha Vance’s Indian heritage—did not seem to affect the vote significantly. It is also unlikely that other Indian Americans associated closely with Trump might have changed many minds in the community, especially those as divisive as Vivek Ramaswamy and Kash Patel. However, we do not yet have data on whether having prominent and wealthy Indian Americans on the Trump team helped in moving the community towards the GOP.
On the U.S.-India bilateral front, it is possible that the Trump-Modi friendship might have had an impact on first generation Indian Americans and recent immigrants. Support for Modi within the community is high, and the cordial relationship between the two men is well-known. There is a feeling that the Biden administration was taking India for granted, and sore points like U.S. assistance to the new Bangladesh government have been widely excoriated in Indian social media. As India continues its path towards greater dominance in world politics, there is the possibility that the Trump-Modi cordiality will sour. Trump has already expressed his unhappiness with a possible new BRIC currency and general BRIC assertiveness, which has grown during the Biden term. This has been met with the general response in India that the U.S. cannot dictate or affect the future of the BRIC. Careless proclamations on Trump’s part that impugn Indian sovereignty will not go down well in the country.
Will the election bring a sea change in the America and the world we know? That seems unlikely, even though half the country typically believes it during the fog and fear of elections. The people who do the daily grinding work of government—legions of federal workers and bureaucrats—are by their very job description designed to be resistant to great change. We have institutions that have and will continue to stand the test of time. The groundswell of support for the Trump novelty will wear off quickly in the brutal day-to-day of politics, and we will find ourselves where we most often are these days—a fifty-fifty country that eventually opposes any significantly extreme moves by the other side.
In the international arena, Trump is also unlikely to bring about dramatic change, although it would not be far-fetched to believe that certain on-going conflicts like Russia-Ukraine will be wound down as the spotlight stays on domestic politics at the beginning of the new administration or other crises raise their heads. Ending this conflict has also constituted a Trump campaign promise. Support for other governments that seemed like a good idea during the election may, however, dissipate. Tried and true international organizations and alliances such as NATO may come to prove their worth and lasting power despite Trump’s criticism of them. In other words, the more things change, the more they may remain the same.
Tinaz Pavri is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Asian Studies Program at Spelman College, Atlanta. A recipient of the Donald Wells Award from the Georgia Political Science Association, she’s the author of the memoir Bombay in the Age of Disco: City, Community, Life.
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