The ongoing conflict with Iran has upended energy supplies, sidelined India diplomatically, and tested the Modi government’s embrace of the U.S.‑Israel axis.
The world is reeling from the events unfolding in Iran and the region. We witnessed the massive U.S. Israeli strikes on key Iranian cities and military infrastructure, the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and other regime leaders, collateral civilian deaths and widespread destruction across Iran, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz is in dire straits.
The world economy was thrown into chaos as ships that carried oil to Europe and Asia were suddenly stopped. While the economic pain in the U.S. is still felt only in terms of increased gas prices and inflation creeping up, Asian countries including India faced immediate oil shortages that caused unrest across the region. Bangladesh imports almost 100% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. For India, it is 50%. Fertilizer was in short supply, and small food stalls closed for lack of gas cylinders as prices skyrocketed.
Just two days before the strikes, Prime Minister Modi was in Israel, embracing Netanyahu and heralding the two countries’ ever closer friendship. The moment underlined a complete departure from India’s historic nonaligned approach and its opposition to apartheid. Indians of a certain age can recall that their passports allowed travel to all countries except South Africa and Israel.
With the end of the Cold war, India-U.S. relations warmed up considerably, but India’s adherence to nonalignment still prevailed and its long-held relationship with Russia remained close into the new millennium. Indian foreign policy evolved slowly, deliberately, and along the same time-tested tenets that had stood it in good stead for decades, seeking to exert benevolent regional influence, co-exist with great and rising powers, and keep Pakistan restrained.
In the Modi era, as the erstwhile nonalignment has given way to “strategic autonomy” and “strategic realism,” the deepening of ties with the U.S., the West, and Israel has been unmistakable. The attention piled on by the U.S. on India as its bulwark against China in the Asian sphere—and as a key pillar of the Quad strategy and a “free and open Indo-Pacific”—was flattering. The personality-driven politics that represents India under Modi fueled excitement at home with each new “special friendship” with world leaders. Modi’s selfie with Georgia Meloni (#Melodi) made supporters giddy with glee. And ofcourse there was the famous friendship with Trump underlined by the Howdy Modi rally in Houston in 2019 and other visits.
Then came the Trump tariffs. And suddenly it seems that the external affairs principles that stood India in good stead for the decades after independence became a bit uncertain. What it viewed as a deep understanding with the U.S. did not prevent America from levying harsh tariffs on Indian goods. Further, Trump’s famed social media posts did not spare India in the disparaging language he used. Indians were shocked, businesses were affected, and the rupee kept falling to new lows as negotiations tried to salvage ties.
Now with the Iran war, Indian foreign policy seems unmoored. The carefully cultivated relations with the Persian Gulf countries, which provide employment to millions of Indians, were compromised as Iran fired missiles into their territories. Further, the U.S. struck Iran without warning, leaving the ensuing chaos to envelop India and the rest of the world.
Pakistan’s selection as mediator between the U.S. and Iran, even though talks were ultimately unsuccessful, has left India flatfooted. Some are pointing out that while in the past principled Indian nonalignment would have made India an important regional player in the ceasefire talks, that perhaps the illtimed embrace of Netanyahu has now sidelined it and elevated Pakistan instead. Apparently, the U.S. didn’t care about Pakistan’s reputation. Its rehabilitation was underway. No matter how poor or crisis-riddled Pakistan may be, it managed to put the dapperly suited Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif on the world stage.
At a minimum, all this might be a propellant for India to take a hard look at its foreign policy and see what recalibration might be needed to bring back the former luster.
Tinaz Pavri is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Asian Studies Program at Spelman College, Atlanta. A recipient of the Donald Wells Award from the Georgia Political Science Association, she’s the author of the memoir Bombay in the Age of Disco: City, Community, Life.