TINAZ PAVRI reflects on an eye-opening conference at the
University of Mumbai, where scholars from Indian universities
and other parts of the world spoke about the role of China in
South Asia. India’s growing concerns are not unfounded.
The first thing I noted in our discussions was that
India and Indians are responding to China’s growing influence
in a similar manner to the U.S. response. They
are startled by the great reach of China’s entanglements
in the world, but do not yet have a countervailing
strategy. They are sometimes lulled into complacency
and sometimes shocked into action.
Meanwhile, in South Asia, China has proceeded
boldly with its “string of pearls” strategy, heavily investing
in and/or opening ports in Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Sri Lanka and even, most recently, the Maldives,
which India has looked upon as a “little brother.” In
Pakistan, India’s obsession since independence, China
has invested over $60 billion through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its influence
has grown dramatically. In effect, India has been surrounded
by the Chinese “pearls,” and its influence in
the region is being challenged as never before. And yet,
there does not seem to be anything that India can do.
In the past decades, it has allowed its influence in its
surrounding neighborhood to wane dramatically. PM
Modi’s “Look East” policy has brought dividends with
Japan, but perhaps, in retrospect, the policy needed to
look closer within the neighborhood, because India’s
relations with its immediate neighbors have never
seemed so weak. In fact, both China and India’s neighboring
countries must grasp India’s weakness in this
regard, because they would never have proceeded in
the provocative way they have, if they had had any
worry that India might retaliate.
Of the many speakers, the Indians were wary and
pessimistic about China’s dramatic new footprint in
their neighborhood. But some of scholars from the
West argued that China’s economic extensions in the
world through CPEC and especially OBOR (One Belt One
Road), were benign and would result in an increase
in the world’s overall economic well-being. Through
OBOR, China has built roads and infrastructure well
into the heart of Europe and the Middle-East. And of
course China’s economic takeover of Africa has been
well documented.
It is true, as another speaker noted, that India still
has in its hand what might ultimately win the game—
its deep and long tradition of democracy, diversity,
and secularism. India has gone through and continues
to go through the painful and necessary adjustments
of consolidating its democracy, and one hopes
that the rewards for this will become apparent in the
future. China, on the other hand, will have its day of
political reckoning with its people, and its economy
may pay the price then. In addition, India holds the
moral upper hand of political freedom over repression
of its people, recent trends notwithstanding. But this
economic-political-moral argument has long been
made regarding China’s rise, and China’s day of political
reckoning looks to be nowhere near. Instead,
President Xi has effectively been made President for
life, and the country is working as one, crushing any
opposition, to exponentially expand its influence on
the rest of the world.
It could also be said that India wields other varieties
of soft power in addition to its democratic tradition:
its Gandhian philosophy, the reach of Bollywood,
and Bhangra. For instance, the Modi government has
made India’s Buddhist past an element of diplomacy
with East Asia. But China is apparently willing to battle
India in this department as well, recently challenging
India for the title of the land of Buddhism, and calling
Buddhism an “ancient Chinese religion!”
To me, the writing on the wall seems clear. It is
not realistic to expect a country which has expanded
its influence in such a dramatic way and to which
much of the world is indebted, to simply continue
to play the same role in world relations that it has
been playing, rather than a new and more assertive
one. India, the USA, and the rest of the world simply
haven’t quite grappled with how to respond; the
conference reflected this.
Tinaz Pavri is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Asian Studies Program at Spelman College, Atlanta. A recipient of the Donald Wells Award from the Georgia Political Science Association, she’s the author of the memoir Bombay in the Age of Disco: City, Community, Life.